Free research brief

America's debt is projected back above 130% by 2028. What could it cost your retirement?

The 130% Line examines Greece's pension cuts, America's different risks, and how taxes and inflation could squeeze your retirement.

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The 130% Line, September 2026 research brief

What's inside the brief.

At 130% debt‑to‑GDP, a government owes $1.30 for every $1 of annual economic output. It is a comparison point, not a universal crisis trigger.

1What Greece's pension cuts and bank restrictions meant for households, and why America has different options
2What the IMF's debt projections measure, and how taxes, spending restraint, and interest costs could reach your retirement
3How inflation can leave a familiar account balance buying less, even without a government default
4What central-bank gold purchases and corporate Bitcoin policies show, and why they are not a household retirement plan
5The trade-offs across cash, bonds, gold, Bitcoin, and other assets, with questions to ask before changing your portfolio

Three projections, not a crisis deadline.

U.S. general-government gross debt as a share of GDP, from the IMF's April 2026 Fiscal Monitor, Table 1.2. These are projections, not current readings. The same series records 132.6% in 2020, so 2028 would be a return above 130%.

125.8%

2026 projection for U.S. general-government gross debt as a share of GDP

132.1%

2028 projection for the same debt measure, back above the 130% comparison line

142.1%

2031 projection for the same debt measure, not a guaranteed outcome

Understand what your retirement could face.

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