Inflation Rate 2026: Month by Month, and What Drove It

US inflation rate by month, 2026

The table shows the consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U), the headline US inflation measure, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The 12-month rates compare each month with the same month of 2025.

October figures are due on Tuesday 10 November 2026 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The shape of the year is in the energy column. Headline and core inflation were within a tenth of a point of each other in January and February. From March the energy index surged and pulled the headline rate above 3 percent, while core inflation stayed between 2.4 and 2.9 percent. June's 0.4 percent monthly fall in the CPI, as energy prices dropped back, was the largest one-month decline since April 2020.

The Federal Reserve's preferred measure, the PCE price index, tells a similar story: 3.4 percent in the 12 months to August 2026, with core PCE at 3.0 percent. September PCE data are due on 29 October 2026.

What drove inflation in 2026

Energy did most of the work. Excluding energy, the CPI rose 2.6 percent in the 12 months to September 2026, against 3.7 percent including it.

Oil and gasoline. West Texas Intermediate crude averaged $60.04 a barrel in January and $102.13 in May, then fell back to $80.46 in July before climbing to $97.31 in September, according to Energy Information Administration data. The CPI gasoline index rose 21.2 percent in March alone, which BLS said accounted for nearly three quarters of that month's increase in the all items index, and in September a 9.1 percent rise in gasoline accounted for over half the monthly increase. Gasoline was up 34.2 percent on the year in September. Statements of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have cited developments in the Middle East since March, and the minutes of its September meeting record officials saying geopolitical developments had pushed up prices for crude oil and refined fuel products.

Shelter. The largest component of the index moved little. Shelter inflation ran between 3.0 and 3.4 percent in every month of 2026 and was 3.2 percent in September, below its 8.2 percent peak of March 2023.

Food. Food prices rose 2.5 percent in the 12 months to September, and food at home 1.8 percent. Coffee stood out: up 18.7 percent on the year in March, slowing to 7.1 percent by September.

Tariffs and goods. The minutes of the Fed's September meeting record staff attributing the rise in inflation from a year earlier mostly to "the effects of past tariff increases, higher energy and input costs stemming from geopolitical developments, and an increase in technology-related consumer goods prices associated with the AI buildout." Several officials said core goods prices were still rising at an elevated rate, as tariff effects waned and those of the AI buildout appeared to increase. In the CPI the tariff channel is hard to see: goods excluding food and energy were up 0.7 percent on the year in September, and used cars and trucks were down 1.5 percent.

The wider mechanics, and how this year compares with the 2021 to 2023 surge, are in what causes inflation.

How the Federal Reserve responded

The Fed started 2026 with its target range at 3.5 to 3.75 percent, after three quarter-point cuts between September and December 2025. It held that range at its January, March, April, June and July meetings while the language on inflation hardened.

• April: the statement said inflation "is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices." Three officials, Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan, dissented against keeping an easing bias in the statement.
• June and July: the statement attributed elevated inflation in part to "supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy." In July the vote to hold was 9 to 3, with the same three officials preferring a quarter-point increase.
• 16 September: the FOMC raised the target range by a quarter point to 3.75 to 4 percent, by 12 votes to none, its first increase since July 2023. The statement said the move "will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal."

The minutes of the September meeting record some officials' concern that, "after more than five years of inflation above 2 percent," elevated inflation could begin to affect expectations and wage- and price-setting. The committee meets on 27 and 28 October and again on 8 and 9 December 2026.

What the full-year 2026 inflation rate will be

A single "inflation rate for 2026" can mean two things, and BLS publishes the data for both with the December CPI on 13 January 2027.

• December to December: the change in the index over the calendar year. For 2025 it was 2.7 percent.
• Annual average: the average index for the year against the previous year's average. For 2025 it was 2.6 percent.

Through September, the index stood 4.0 percent above its December 2025 level, before seasonal adjustment: $100 of the December basket cost $103.98 nine months later. The average for January to September 2026 was 3.4 percent above the same nine months of 2025. Both figures will move with October to December prices, and energy is the swing factor.

The Fed's own forecast uses PCE inflation from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the fourth quarter of 2026. In September, the median FOMC projection was 3.7 percent for headline PCE and 3.4 percent for core, falling to 2.3 and 2.5 percent in 2027. The inflation calculator converts any dollar amount between years at the published rates.

2026 against recent years

On both measures, 2026 so far sits well below 2022 and above 2024 and 2025.

The 12-month rate peaked at 9.1 percent in June 2022. The full record back to 1914 is in the US inflation rate by year table.

Next inflation releases

The dates below come from the BLS, BEA and Federal Reserve calendars as of 27 October 2026. CPI and PCE figures are released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.

The 10 November release carries a complication. BLS collected no prices in October 2025 because of the federal government shutdown and published no October 2025 index for most series, so the usual 12-month comparison for October lacks its base month. How BLS has handled that gap so far is set out in our guide to the CPI report.