Every weekly issue
The Monday research brief on the dollar, gold and the national debt. 32 issues since March 2026, newest first.
When fear arrived, it bought Treasuries
The 10-year real Treasury yield ended the week at 2.66%. In August 2021 it reached minus 1.19%.
The inflation trade moved into oil
WTI gained 10.4% in the week ended October 16. Gold futures lost 0.8%.
The dollar's record is mostly a broken euro
The dollar index closed at 102.23 on October 9, its highest level of 2026.
Why long yields kept rising after weak jobs
The 30-year Treasury closed at 5.629% on October 2, after payrolls rose by just 29,000.
A mortgage now costs 7.03%. The Fed didn't do that. The bond market did.
Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed mortgage at 7.03% this week. The average yield across the $32 trillion Treasury market is 5.05%.
Warsh wants a smaller balance sheet. That puts the Fed and the Treasury on opposite sides of the bond market.
Closing yields on September 18: two-year 4.75%, 10-year 5.01%, 30-year 5.33%. The long end barely moved after the hike.
The Treasury bought $6 billion of its own bonds on Wednesday. Yields rose anyway. That is the most important thing that happened this month.
Gold lost 3% on the week and silver lost 5.1%, the worst two rows in this table. The path there was strange. Gold sat flat through a $6 billion Treasury buyback that was supposed to lift it, then jumped 0.8% to...
Gold and Bitcoin are trading the same thesis. One Bitcoin now buys almost 18 ounces of gold, and that gap is the story.
Gold is being pulled by two forces at once. Every softening in rate expectations lifts it, because gold pays no interest and competes directly with yield. Every firm data point knocks it back for the same reason....
The Treasury is buying bonds to hold yields down. On Friday the Fed chair said he will not help. That collision has a start date.
Gold gave back a strong week in about ninety minutes. Front-month futures dropped $159.90 on Friday to $4,504.10, and spot has since drifted to $4,443, down 4.3% over seven days. The more useful number is the annual...
Warsh called his Jackson Hole speech a blank page. That's the most important thing the Fed has said all year.
Bitcoin up 18% in a week is the obvious headline, but the mechanism underneath it matters more than the number. Last Friday's rally came with $1.74 billion in short liquidations in 24 hours, forced buying from traders...
Inflation cooled. The ceasefire expired. Neither headline tells the whole story.
Gold is essentially flat on the week, caught between two forces running in opposite directions. The cool CPI print pushed it toward $4,400. The hawkish FOMC minutes and ceasefire expiry pulled it back. Bank of America...
The jobs number that changed everything.
Gold had its biggest single-session move of 2026 on Friday, jumping over 6% as the jobs contraction demolished September hike expectations and Iran talks collapsed simultaneously. Gold-backed ETFs pulled in $3 billion...
The Fed held. The bond market hiked anyway.
Gold is up on the week despite the most hawkish Fed press conference of the year, the first time that correlation has broken down since January. The dollar falling to 99.87, its lowest level since early 2025, is doing...
The Fed decides tomorrow. Everything in your portfolio is waiting on one sentence.
Gold climbed back toward $4,100 Monday as a ceasefire pause between the US and Iran sent oil sharply lower, easing inflation fears ahead of the Fed meeting. The metal has been trading a narrow band between $4,000 and...
Trump is choosing between a ceasefire and full-scale war. Goldman says oil hits $120 if he picks wrong.
Oil is up 30% from its July lows as the ceasefire collapsed and the blockade was reinstated. Brent briefly topped $91 Monday before Iran's foreign ministry signaled it had received diplomatic proposals from...
The Fed got good inflation news yesterday. Trump took it away the same afternoon.
Oil is the story of the week, up nearly 15% as the ceasefire collapsed and the naval blockade was reinstated. WTI went from $69 to above $80 in under a week, its biggest move since the war began in February. Brent...
June jobs came in at 57,000. Here's why that number moved every asset you own.
Bitcoin had its best week since March, up 6.4%, driven entirely by macro forces rather than anything crypto-specific. Ethereum outperformed at 12.2% on the week, with Vitalik Buterin's announcement of the protocol's...
Strategy's stock is worth less than the Bitcoin it owns. Here's what the market is actually saying.
Bitcoin tested $59,000 support this week, its lowest level since October 2024 and down nearly 50% from its October 2025 all-time high. ETF outflows have run for six straight weeks, totaling close to $6 billion. The...
Alan Greenspan is gone. The system he built is starting to crack.
Gold is down nearly 5% this week as the dollar strengthened sharply on Fed rate hike expectations. Deutsche Bank and BofA both moved their September hike forecasts into their base case after Warsh's hawkish first FOMC...
SpaceX closed at $160. Every fund that bought it now holds Bitcoin.
Oil is down nearly 15% on the week, the biggest single-week drop since the war started. The Iran peace deal sent WTI below $80 for the first time since February. Lower energy costs mean lower headline inflation, which...
Bitcoin crashed below $60K. Washington published the Strategic Reserve bill the same day.
Bitcoin fell below $60,000 for the first time since 2024 this weekend before rebounding to $62,570. May's stronger-than-expected jobs report pushed rate hike odds to 40% for December, the dollar strengthened, and...
A $2.5 million sale moved a $1.3 trillion market. That tells you everything about who's actually holding Bitcoin.
Bitcoin hit a seven-week low near $69,469 after Saylor's 32-coin sale triggered a panic that had nothing to do with fundamentals and everything to do with doctrine. The market had priced in "never sells" as a feature....
SpaceX owns $1.29 billion in Bitcoin. The list of companies that don't is getting shorter.
Gold is flat on the week, holding just above $4,550 as diplomacy headlines compete with rate hike fears for control of the narrative. The softer dollar is helping. A genuine Hormuz reopening would send gold lower in the...
The Fed Just Ruled Out Rate Cuts for 2026. Here's What That Actually Means for Your Portfolio.
Gold dropped nearly 4% last week after April CPI came in hotter than expected and investors priced out Fed rate cuts entirely. The dynamic is the same one we covered in May: when rate hike speculation returns, the...
April CPI Drops This Morning. Here's the Number That Actually Matters, and It's Not the Headline.
Silver is the standout this week, up 11.1% after Monday's surge to $85.50, its highest level in two months. The move is partly safe-haven, partly industrial demand expectations, and partly six consecutive years of...
Bitcoin Just Crossed $80,000. The CLARITY Act Is Why, and the Implications Are Bigger Than the Price.
Bitcoin is back above $80,000 for the first time since January, up 5.2% on the week, and leading every asset class on this list by a wide margin. The CLARITY Act progress is the catalyst, with Circle and Coinbase stocks...
The Fed Meets Tomorrow. Here's the Only Number That Actually Matters.
Gold pulled back 3.2% this week as Iran submitted a new Hormuz proposal and Trump quietly told advisers he wants out of the conflict even without a full strait reopening. The relief rally in oil dragged gold down on...
Tim Cook Is Out. Apple Has a New CEO. Here's Why Alternative Investors Should Pay Attention.
Gold is grinding higher, up 43% year over year even after the pullback from January's $5,594 peak. Ceasefire talks resuming in Pakistan this week are the main swing factor. Any deal sends oil down and gold up on lower...
Inflation Hit 3.3%. The Fed Predicted 2.7%. Gold Noticed.
Gold is rebounding toward $4,800 as Iran signaled willingness to resume talks and oil pulled back. A softer dollar helps. The fundamentals haven't changed. They've just been buried under war headlines.
Iran Rejected the Deal. Here's What Happens to Your Portfolio Now.
Gold and crypto are both holding up. Bitcoin hit $70,000 yesterday on $471M in ETF inflows, the 6th biggest single day of 2026. Gold is steady above $4,660. Dollar softening is helping both.
Gold Is Down 20% From Its High. Every Major Bank on Wall Street Is Still Targeting $6,000.
Precious metals are bouncing after getting beaten up badly. Gold is still 18% below its January peak of $5,594. Silver is down 42% from its all-time high. Both are caught between a real safe-haven bid and forced selling...
Gold Hit $5,595. Then It Lost $500 in a Single Session. Here's What That Actually Means.
Precious metals: Gold hit its all-time high of $5,595 on January 29th. On Monday it shed over $500 in a single session after Trump signaled a 5-day pause on Iran strikes. The "war premium" evaporated overnight. Biggest...
The bigger picture, every Monday
One research brief on the dollar, the debt and the assets being repriced around them.